Colombia

2050 projections of power and industrial high temperature heating sectors:  

⁺_{Emissions are the annualized value for a 30-year project starting in 2050 (i.e., divided by 30 from the total project emissions)} 

^§_{A negative value for cost of achieving net zero in collaboration configurations implies that BAU-No Action scenario for the set of countries assuming current energy mix leads to a more expensive system than when investing in zero-carbon power generation for those countries. Please see Country-specific notes on Methodology - National and Collaboration Modelling (STEVFNs) section below for detailed information on assumptions leading to this result.} 

^* _{The technical potential is a first order estimate calculated based on a generalised set of land / ocean area exclusion constraints and technical parameters for each technology. Differences to other literature can occur due to different modelling assumptions.}  

^** _{The technical potential for renewable energy sources used in STEVFNs including wind onshore, wind offshore, open field and residential rooftop solar PV is estimated by a Python-based simulation pipeline}¹¹. _{The pipeline applies temporally and spatially-resolved simulation models of the open-source python packages GLAES (Geospatial Land Eligibility for Energy Systems) and RESKit (Renewable Energy Simulation Toolkit)}¹². 

^{^}_{For onshore wind technology, only the first (best) two “bins” from the simulation pipeline were used and averaged for CAPEX, capacity factor time series and maximum capacity as inputs to STEVFNs modelling}

Country context  

Colombia, with a population of around 52 million people, recorded a GDP of $363.54 billion and a per capita income of approximately $6,980 in 2023. As one of South America’s largest and most biodiverse nations, Colombia has a significant stake in climate efforts. The country’s varied topography—from the Andes mountains and Amazon basin to the northern deserts and Caribbean coastline—supports a broad range of renewable energy resources. Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source, particularly in the Andean region, while the La Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia presents significant potential for wind and solar energy. Despite these resources, fossil fuels continue to play a role in Colombia’s economy. In 2020, coal and gas supplied about respectively 10% and 16% of the national power generation. Furthermore, coal accounted for roughly 13% of total exports, while petroleum made up 45%. As a fossil fuel-dependent developing country, Colombia faces challenges in transitioning to a sustainable economy amid global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. 

Politically, climate action has gained traction with the election of President Gustavo Petro in August 2022, who has committed to steering Colombia toward a low-carbon economy. His administration has highlighted the need to reduce deforestation, transition from fossil fuels, and build a sustainable energy system, though this ambitious agenda is dependent upon international cooperation. Early moves by his government include a draft legislative ban on fracking. However, while Petro’s administration seeks to advance a green agenda, the country’s reliance on coal and oil presents challenges, especially for exports as the global demand for coal declines and the international community aims for accelerated decarbonization. 

Colombia’s climate policy framework centers around its NDC and its Climate Action Law. The updated 2020 NDC aims to cut national GHG emissions by 51% by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Additionally, Colombia submitted a 2050 Long-Term Strategy (E2050) to the UNFCCC, committing to a net-zero GHG emissions target by mid-century. The country formalized these commitments through the Climate Action Law (Law No. 2169) in December 2021, establishing Colombia’s NDC and carbon neutrality goals as legally binding. However, achieving these targets requires substantial efforts across sectors. 

Colombia has made good progress implementing renewables in the power sector in 2020, over 70% of Colombian power supply comes from hydropower. However, there are no further targets for rapidly upscaling renewables beyond 2022. Measures within Colombia’s NDC include improving energy efficiency standards for cooling and heating by implementing resolution N°0549 relating to sustainable construction. Colombia has committed to a 15% reduction in fossil fuel use in the cement industry by 2030.  

Although Colombia has set an ambitious 50% EV target by 2030, it has not adopted a full EV pledge. Efforts to expand EV infrastructure remain limited by support for natural gas in transportation, underscoring a complex energy transition.  

In 2021, Colombia signed the Global Methane Pledge at COP26, aiming for a 30% reduction in methane emissions from 2020 levels by 2030, focusing on energy, waste, and agricultural emissions. Methane, which accounts for roughly 40% of Colombia’s GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF), mainly originates from agriculture. While the NDC includes measures to reduce methane, achieving the pledge will demand further policy efforts and full implementation of planned initiatives in waste management. 

Summary: 

Up to 51.7 MtCO₂e/y     Technical Potential at no additional cost^{^^} 

Up to 51.7 MtCO₂e/y     Technical Potential at additional average mitigation cost^{^} of USD10/MtCO₂e 

Up to 51.7 MtCO₂e/y     Technical Potential at additional average mitigation cost^{^} of USD20/MtCO₂e 

Up to 51.7 MtCO₂e/y     Technical Potential at additional average mitigation cost^{^} of USD50/MtCO₂e 

Up to 51.7 MtCO₂e/y     Geographic potential^# 

51.7 MtCO₂e/y              Technical potential – domestic^* 

Key elements: Onshore wind. Under STEVFNs modelling, Colombia is able to reduce emissions by 100% from the no-action scenario. This differs to the estimates under OSeMOSYS detailed national modelling due to the different sectors and technologies modelled. 

51.7 MtCO₂e/y               Technical potential – International collaboration  

Key elements: Green electricity imports are key to reduce the cost of mitigation for Colombia in collaborations, with possibilities to reach net savings. 

^{^^}_{This refers to a change in the technology mix that would result in the same system cost as the current policy scenario. It does not take into account costs associated with transiting to a different technology mix.} 

^{^}_{This refers to the additional average system cost with reference to the current policy scenario, costs expressed in USD} 

^# _{Geographical potential is estimated only for the sectors considered in GMPA. GMPA tries to consider the cheapest and biggest mitigation options/sectors, however other mitigation options/sectors also exist so actual geographical potential is larger. As GMPA adds more sectors, this number will get closer to matching the actual theoretical limit.} 

^* _{Refers to the emissions reductions that can be achieved by implementing the full set of available options in a given year.} 

Dynamic Pareto Abatement Cost Curves (D-PACC) in Autarky and International Collaborations^* 

^*_{The following stills of the D-PACC show bar charts for the annualized cost of the main technologies in the highest mitigation scenario for each case study. For higher detail, please see the interactive mitigation potential diagrams when exploring the map.}